(R)evolutions in Political Risk Assessment
Global expansion of businesses requires an understanding of varied political landscapes and regulatory environments in new markets. Political risk analysis aids business strategy by early identification of threats that may directly impede business performance and obstruct return on investments. Instability of political regimes in the MENA region, acts of terrorism globally, threats of sanctions, and national elections in emerging markets are only some events of this year that have had significant bearing on conducting business internationally. This panel will explore the evolution of political risk analysis and its incorporation within a firm’s broader risk management strategy. In addition, the panelists will share their insights into the existing tools and frameworks to measure political risk and strategies adopted to mitigate it.
Laura is a Senior Vice President for Willis Financial Solutions in Washington, DC where she specializes in providing political risk insurance expertise to Fortune 1000 corporations, non-profit organizations, and capital markets transactions with investment exposure in emerging markets. With over 13 years of experience as an underwriter and broker, Laura has placed many innovative political risk programs in both the private markets of New York, London and Bermuda as well as public market placements with OPIC and MIGA.
Laura joined Willis in 2014. Prior to joining Willis, she was Vice President of political risk within Marsh's Political Risk practice. Laura began her career in insurance with Chubb, as an underwriter trainee. She then took on various roles as underwriter, senior underwriter, territory manager, and broker. Prior to joining the insurance industry, Laura served as an intern with the U.S. Department of State (formerly the U.S. Information Agency).
Laura obtained her B.A. in Policy Studies from Dickinson College and a M.A. in International Relations from the Fletcher School of Law and Diplomacy, Tufts University.
Dr. David A. Glancy is currently a professor at the Institute of World Politics (IWP), a graduate school of national security and international affairs in Washington, DC. Prior to joining IWP, Dr. Glancy served as an Assistant Professor with the College of National Security Affairs (CISA) at National Defense University and he worked with a variety of government clients as an associate with Booz Allen Hamilton. Before going into consulting, Dr. Glancy held positions at both the State Department and Defense Department. At the State Department, he served as a Senior Advisor for Political-Military Affairs. At the Defense Department, Dr. Glancy was a policy analyst and advisor with the Office of the Secretary of Defense. During his time at the Pentagon, Dr. Glancy served as the Director of the Global War on Terrorism Communications Group and worked as a special assistant with the Eurasia policy office.
Dr. Glancy has provided political risk analysis for firms in the financial industry and he teaches a course on political risk analysis and forecasting at IWP. He received a BA in Political Science and International Studies from the University of Michigan-Dearborn and an MALD and doctorate from the Fletcher School. Dr. Glancy also earned an MBA from the Booth School of Business at the University of Chicago. In addition, Dr. Glancy is an affiliate with SovereigNet, the Fletcher Network for Sovereign Wealth and Global Capital.
DJ Peterson’s mission is to help corporate leaders and investors make sense of critical political, economic, and social issues shaping their business and the environments in which they operate around the world.
In 2013, DJ founded Longview Global Advisors, a consultancy that works with clients on a range of tasks from strategic planning to market intelligence to thought leadership, and executive positioning. To tackle their needs, the firm draws on a network comprised of country, sector, and issue experts around the world. Backed by this well-sourced team, Longview helps executives globalize their worldview and enhance relationships with clients and stakeholders – to look beyond, and be bigger than, their business.
DJ has advised firms in a range of sectors, including financial services, insurance, consumer goods, automotive, industrial products, energy and mining, technology and telecommunications, life sciences, and professional services.
From 2006 to 2012, DJ built and led the Corporate Advisory Services practice at Eurasia Group, where he and his team of 13 business developers and client-relationship managers served 100 large-cap clients in North America, Europe, and Japan. DJ also founded and led the firm’s Operating Committee, capping his years of driving growth in areas such as business development, client services, product innovation, business planning, project management, and human capital.
From 1998 to 2006, DJ was a political scientist at the RAND Corporation, where he led major research ventures in areas such as politics and policy in Russia, natural resources management, homeland security, and technology futures. In addition, he organized and led the firm's Environment, Energy and Economic Development Program.
DJ received his B.A. in Area Studies and Russian from Duke University and his M.A. and Ph.D. in Political Science from UCLA.
DJ frequently speaks to and writes for top-level business audiences, and has been quoted in publications such as Bloomberg Businessweek, the Wall Street Journal, the New York Times, the Los Angeles Times, and CNN.
Sam Wilkin is Senior Advisor, Political Risk, to Oxford Analytica. Founded in 1975, Oxford Analytica draws on a global expert network to provide geopolitical and strategic analysis to a roster of clients that includes many of the world’s largest corporations and more than fifty world governments.
Sam is the editor of Country and Political Risk: Practical Insights for Global Finance: Second Edition (Risk Books, 2015). With contributions from HSBC, Jefferies and Company, Sumitomo Mitsui bank, and UK economics commentator Martin Wolf, among many others, this volume addresses the existential country risk management challenges currently facing global financial institutions.
Sam is a frequent speaker on current affairs, the economic outlook, emerging markets, and geopolitical risk. He previously served as head of business research at Oxford Economics, as associate director of the consultancy practice at Oxford Analytica, as head of political risk consulting for Aon Trade Credit and as director of country analysis for Marvin Zonis & Associates. He received his M.A. in international relations from the University of Chicago and B.A. in economics from Eckerd College, and was the 2004 alumni fellow for Eckerd College.
Jonathan Brookfield, Associate Professor of Strategic Management and International Business, teaches classes on strategic management, international business, the political economy and business environments of greater China, privatization, nationalization, and the boundary between State and private sector, and business groups in Asia. He received a B.S. from Yale, an MPhil from the University of Cambridge, and a PhD from the University of Pennsylvania. Professor Brookfield has published several articles looking at different kinds of business networks in Asia and sits on the editorial review boards of the Asia Pacific Journal of Management and the Journal of International Business Studies. His current research interests include comparative political economy, political risk, business groups, interfirm networks, industrial districts, firm boundaries, and business in Asia.
Investment & Operations in Complex Environments
Firm strategy in complex areas requires deep knowledge of host-nations, starting from market entry and continuing through the life cycle of the business. The inherent challenges of operating in emerging and frontier markets arise not only from the policies and politics of the host countries but, in some cases, sociopolitical instability and violent conflict. How can a company successfully employ political risk management and corporate security strategies to ensure that anticipated financial gains will be captured, and that operations, personnel, and assets will be protected? How do businesses and markets survive amidst conflict? What opportunities exist amidst uncertainty? Panelists will explore the relationship between country and corporate risks and how companies and investors manage this balance in complex environments.
Mr. Fisher is Vice President, Global Corporate Security, at CB&I. In his current position, Mr. Fisher is responsible for establishing and managing the overall security programs, policies and procedures for CB&I worldwide.
More than 30 years experience in the Corporate Security, Law Enforcement, and Investigative field, with extensive emphasis on domestic and international security and crisis management operations for Fortune 500 companies. Before joining CB&I, Mr. Fisher was in Security Management positions with Tenneco Oil E&P, Texaco Inc, and Burlington Resources. He is recognized by the industry as a Certified Protection Professional and a Certified Fraud Examiner.
Mr. Fisher holds a B.S. degree in Criminal Justice from Florida International University and is a graduate of the National Intelligence Academy and the Southeast Florida Institute of Criminal Justice.
Mr. Fisher is currently an active member of: International Security Management Association (ISMA), American Society For Industrial Security (ASIS), Association of Certified Fraud Examiners (ACFE), American Fuel & Petrochemical Manufacturers (previously NPRA) Security Committee, and Montgomery County Crime Stoppers Board of Directors.
CB&I combines proven process technology with global capabilities in engineering, procurement construction and technology to deliver comprehensive solutions to customers in the power, energy and natural resource industries. With more than 70 proprietary licensed technologies and 1,500 patents, CB&I is uniquely positioned to take projects from conceptual design, through technology licensing, engineering and construction and final commissioning. Drawing upon the global expertise and local knowledge of approximately 50,000 employees in more than 80 locations, CB&I safely and reliably executes projects worldwide. For more information visit www.CBI.com.
Frank Linden is a Senior Risk Management Officer in the Economics and Policy Group of the Multilateral Investment Guarantee Agency (MIGA), the political risk insurance arm of the World Bank Group. The group is responsible for assessing project and country risks; for ensuring projects supported by MIGA are developmentally sound; and for verifying that operations are consistent with good economic policy and sustainable for the host country—as well as financially sustainable for MIGA. Prior to joining MIGA in January 2010, Frank worked for 11 years at Merrill Lynch & Co. There, he was responsible for Merrill's country and sovereign risk management as part of the firm's credit risk department. Prior to that, Frank was an officer and a senior analyst in the strategic analysis division of the Military Intelligence Agency in the Netherlands. Frank obtained an MA from the Fletcher School of Law and Diplomacy (Tufts University) with a concentration in international business and finance. He also holds an MA in Eastern European and Soviet studies from the University of Amsterdam, the Netherlands.
Michael Moran is Managing Director, Global Risk Analysis at Control Risks, and is based in the New York office. A foreign policy analyst, author and geo-strategist for investment banks and other institutions, he concentrates on macro risk and US energy, foreign policy and global economic matters. He is author of The Reckoning: Debt, Democracy and the Future of American Power, and co-author of the The Fastest Billion: The Story Behind Africa's Economic Revolution.
Before joining Control Risks, Michael served as head of thought leadership at the investment bank Renaissance Capital, focused primarily on global energy issues and oil and gas opportunities in frontier markets, particularly sub-Saharan Africa. Before moving to financial services, Michael spent four years running digital strategy and editorial at the Council on Foreign Relations, where he launched CFR’s Crisis Guides series, which garnered three Emmy awards and numerous other honors. He was also a senior correspondent and ran international coverage for MSNBC.com; a London-based US affairs analyst for the BBC World Service; a Munich-based senior editor for Radio Free Europe/Radio Liberty; and, in his early career, a reporter for the Associated Press and several newspapers.
Michael is an adjunct professor of journalism at Bard College, and was the Hearst New Media Teaching Fellow at Columbia University Graduate School of Journalism in 2003. He spent over a decade as a board member of the Overseas Press Club, as well as a judge of its annual awards, and as a member of Human Rights Watch communications advisory board.
Daniel Wagner is the Founder and CEO of Country Risk Solutions (CRS) -- a cross-border risk advisory firm based in Connecticut (USA) -- and Senior Advisor with Gnarus Advisors.
Prior to founding CRS, Daniel was Senior Vice President of Country Risk at GE Energy Financial Services where he was part of a team investing billions of dollars annually into global energy projects. Daniel was responsible for advising senior management on a variety of country risk-related issues, strategic planning, and portfolio management. He created a Center of Excellence for country risk analysis in GE and led a team that produced a comprehensive automated country risk rating methodology.
He began his career underwriting Political Risk Insurance (PRI) at AIG in New York and subsequently spent five years as Guarantee Officer for the Asia Region at the World Bank Group’s Multilateral Investment Guarantee Agency in Washington, D.C.
During that time he was responsible for underwriting PRI for projects in a dozen Asian countries. After then serving as Regional Manager for Political Risks for Southeast Asia and Greater China for AIG in Singapore, Daniel moved to Manila,
Philippines where he was Guarantee and Risk Management Advisor, Political Risk Guarantee Specialist, and Senior Guarantees and Syndications Specialist for the Asian Development Bank’s Office of Cofinancing Operations. Over the course of his quarter century-long career Daniel has also held senior positions in the PRI brokerage business in London, Dallas and Houston. Daniel has published hundreds of articles on risk management and current affairs, is a non-resident scholar at the Institute for Near East and Gulf Military Analysis, and a regular contributor to the Huffington Post, South China Morning Post, International Policy Digest, and the International Risk Management Institute (IRMI), among others.
His editorials have been published in such notable newspapers as the International Herald Tribune and the Wall Street Journal. His first book - Political Risk Insurance Guide - was published by IRMI. His second book - Managing Country Risk – was published by Taylor and Francis in 2012 (see: www.managingcountryrisk.com).
He holds master’s degrees in International Relations from the University of Chicagoand in International Management from the American Graduate School of International Management (Thunderbird) in Phoenix. Daniel received his bachelor’s degree in Political Science from Richmond College in London. Daniel can be reached at firstname.lastname@example.org and 1-203-570-1005 (www.countryrisksolutions.com).
Bhaskar Chakravorti is the Senior Associate Dean of International Business & Finance at The Fletcher School at Tufts Universityand the founding Executive Director of Fletcher’s Institute for Business in the Global Context.
Prior to joining Fletcher, Bhaskar was a Partner of McKinsey & Company, a Distinguished Scholar at MIT's Legatum Center for Development and Entrepreneurship and on the faculty of Harvard Business School and Harvard University Center for the Environment. He was a leader of McKinsey’s Innovation and Global Forces practices, served on its Knowledge Services Committee and taught innovation and entrepreneurship at Harvard. In a 20+ year career, he has been an advisor to CEOs, senior management and Boards of over 30 companies in the Fortune 500 and worked across the Americas, EU, Asia and Africa, and multiple industries. He is the author of the best-selling book, “The Slow Pace of Fast Change: Bringing Innovations to Market in a Connected World”.
Bhaskar's prior appointments were as a Partner and Thought Leader at the Monitor Group, a game theorist at Bellcore (formerly Bell Labs), assistant professor at the University of Illinois at Urbana-Champaign and a TAS officer with India's Tata Group. His PhD in economics is from the University of Rochester, where he was a University Fellow. He is a graduate of the Delhi School of Economics and in economics with honors from Delhi University’s St. Stephen’s College. Bhaskar and his wife, Gita, live in Brookline, MA with their two children, Tarit and Sahana, and two fairly agreeable cats.
The Shifting Geopolitics of Oil & Gas: Risks & Opportunities
The IEA reports that global oil consumption will rise from 90 million barrels per day in 2013 to 104 million barrels per day in 2040, and estimates that $900 billion of investment annually will be necessary to meet that growth. Amidst this increasing global demand for energy, driven in large part by the developing world, the American shale revolution and technological advancements in the extraction and storage of liquefied natural gas has altered the international energy market and resulted in dropping gas prices. Meanwhile, tensions over Ukraine and related economic sanctions against Russia have pushed the energy giant to increase ties with China, and an increasingly unstable Middle East poses questions for global energy security. The patterns of energy supply and demand that have long defined the global economy are in flux. What is the future of the global energy landscape? This panel will address the risks and opportunities that investors face as a result of these economic and geopolitical shifts.
Mr. Book is Managing Director, Research, at ClearView Energy Partners, LLC, an independent research firm that serves institutional investors and corporate strategists. Mr. Book’s primary coverage areas include oil, natural gas, coal and refined products.
Mr. Book appears frequently within print and broadcast media, contributes to policy forums convened by government and private organizations and meets with top Washington decision-makers. Mr. Book has also testified before several House and Senate Committees.
Mr. Book is a member of the National Petroleum Council, a self-funded advisory body to the Secretary of Energy, and a nonresident Senior Associate with the Energy and National Security Program at the Center for Strategic and International Studies.
Prior to co-founding ClearView, Mr. Book worked as a senior energy analyst for a national investment bank. He holds an M.A. in law and diplomacy from the Fletcher School of Law and Diplomacy and a B.A. in economics from Tufts University.
Sarah Emerson is the President of Energy Security Analysis, Inc (ESAI), an independent energy research and forecasting firm located just outside of Boston, Massachusetts. Ms. Emerson joined ESAI in 1986. As Managing Principal of ESAI Energy, which is responsible for the Petroleum and Alternative Fuels consulting practice, she has developed many of ESAI’s proprietary analytical tools for assessing the liquid fuels markets and forecasting oil prices. ESAI Energy provides research and forecasting support on a retainer consulting basis to over 75 energy companies around the world. In addition, the firm undertakes bespoke consulting projects for dozens of companies each year.
Over the course of her career, Ms. Emerson has supervised the development of an empirical source database of monthly oil data that cover the period January 1978 to present for every country in the world with particular focus on non-OECD countries. This data base is used by energy companies all over the world, and the data appear in third party publications such as the BP Statistical Review. More broadly, she has conducted industry studies on a wide range of topics, such as the market for Natural Gas Liquids, the transfer of pollution in energy trade, the profitability of Asian refining, the outlook for global automotive fuel markets, the global market for heavy crude oil, and the future of the Russian refining industry. In 1992, she published the first description ever available in the West of the Russian refining sector.
Ms. Emerson has testified before the U.S. Senate Energy Committee on oil markets and before the ICC and ICSID in energy sector arbitrations. Recently, she presented to the Department of Commerce with regard to the export of processed condensate.
In addition to her market analysis and forecasting activities, Ms. Emerson has been an adviser to the U.S., Japanese and Indian governments on energy security issues. She publishes articles in scholarly journals, the energy trade press, and is frequently quoted in the daily press. Ms. Emerson was a 2004 Key Women in Energy Honoree. In 2004 and 2005, she was the Repsol-YPF Senior Fellow at the Center for Business and Government at Harvard University where she conducted research on the oil markets and energy policy. Ms. Emerson received her B.A. from Cornell University and her M.A. from the Johns Hopkins University Nitze School of Advanced International Studies.
Ms. Emerson is a member of the Cornell University Council, a trustee for the Pingree School and a member of the executive committee of the Andover Coalition for Education. She resides in Massachusetts with her husband and two sons.
Paulina Mirenkova, IHS CERA Associate Director, Russia and Caspian Energy, focuses on energy, energy transportation systems, and regional economic development in the Former Soviet Union (FSU), with Central Asia in particular. She also writes on the political and investment climate in the region. Her most recent research includes oil developments in Kazakhstan, economics of Kashagan, Ukrainian energy developments, analysis of Kazakhstan’s oil export transportation routes, and regional use of natural gas in transportation. Prior to joining IHS CERA, Ms. Mirenkova worked as a quantitative analyst with an asset management firm in Boston. She is fluent in Russian and Japanese. Ms. Mirenkova holds two bachelor's degrees from Northeastern University and a Master's Degree in International Relations from the Fletcher School of Law and Diplomacy at Tufts University.
Barbara (Bobbi) Kates-Garnick has had an extensive career in the energy, environmental and clean technology fields that has spanned both the public and private sectors. Over the course of that career she has worked as a leading decision maker in state government and as an officer of a Fortune 300 utility company; the developer of a start-up venture that became a premier national energy supplier; a management consultant on a wide range of strategic consulting engagements in the energy and environmental fields as well as media outreach on complex public policy issues; advisor to a major research university with a focus on clean technology, entrepreneurship and innovation that resulted in the establishment of a major clean tech incubator in New York City; and adjunct professor of economics. In addition, Bobbi is an actively engaged board member on both for-profit and non-profit boards.
Kates-Garnick's private sector achievements include serving as an officer at KeySpan where, as corporate affairs vice president, she developed energy policy strategy and directed the governmental communications and community relations teams. She also founded the New England office of New Energy Ventures, a successful electric supplier that now operates nationally as Constellation NewEnergy.
A resident of Boston's South End, Kates-Garnick earned an undergraduate degree in political science at Bryn Mawr College, and a PhD at Tufts University's Fletcher School of Law and Diplomacy.